Hedge funds surged in November, driven by the US Presidential election results, as managers and investors positioned for an active M&A cycle and more business- friendly policies from the incoming administration, writes HFR.
The HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index (FWC) surged +2.6 per cent in November, while the HFRI Asset Weighted Composite Index jumped +2.1 per cent for the month, according to data released today by HFR. Strategy gains were led by Equity Hedge and Directional Event Driven exposures, with each of these posting the strongest monthly gain for 2024.
The recently launched HFRI Multi-Manager/Pod Shop Index gained +2.6 per cent for the month as managers positioned for the policies of the incoming administration across all sectors including energy, import, technology and financials. The HFR Cryptocurrency Index also surged +46.0 per cent on favourable outlook for cryptocurrency by the incoming Trump administration, vaulting its YTD return to +76.2 per cent through November.
HFR special report: Presidential politics and hedge funds
Last month, HFR released a special research report featuring in-depth quantitative analysis on the performance of hedge funds through the lens of which US political party administration held the office of the president during specific time frames. The firm writes that this unique and insightful special report includes a complete historical comparison of presidential terms since 1990 across many financial, economic and political cycles. The report is available for complimentary download here.
Hedge fund performance dispersion expanded in November, as the top decile of the HFRI FWC constituents advanced by an average of +12.3 per cent, while the bottom decile fell by an average of -4.9 per cent, representing a top/bottom dispersion of 17.2 per cent for the month.
By comparison, the top/bottom performance dispersion in October was 11.6 per cent. In the trailing 12 months ending November 2024, the top decile of FWC constituents gained +45.3 per cent, while the bottom decile declined -10.9 per cent, representing a top/bottom dispersion of 56.3 per cent. Approximately 75 per cent of hedge funds produced positive performance in November.
Equity Hedge (EH) funds, which invest long and short across specialised sub-strategies, jumped in November with the HFRI Equity Hedge (Total) Index advancing an estimated +3.4 per cent for the month to bring the YTD return to +13.4 per cent, which leads all main strategy indices YTD 2024. EH sub-strategy gains were led by the HFRI EH: Technology Index which surged +6.7 per cent for the month, the strongest monthly return since inception. The HFRI EH: Quantitative Directional Index jumped +6.1 per cent for the month and is the leading area of sub-strategy performance YTD 2024, vaulting +21.5 per cent through November.
Event-Driven (ED) strategies, which often focus on out-of-favour, deep value equity exposures and speculation on M&A situations, surged in November on the US election results and expectations for strong M&A cycle into 2025. The HFRI Event-Driven (Total) Index jumped +3.3 per cent, the strongest monthly gains for 2024.
ED sub-strategy gains were led by the HFRI ED: Activist Index, which vaulted +4.85 per cent, while the HFRI ED: Multi-Strategy Index jumped +4.5 per cent for the month. Other ED sub-strategies posting strong gains included HFRI ED: Special Situations Index and HFRI ED: Distressed Index, with these advancing +3.4 and +2.9 per cent, respectively.
Macro strategies also advanced in November, reversing prior month declines as US interest rates traded in a wide range and managers positioned for the policy changes for the incoming Trump administration. The HFRI Macro (Total) Index advanced +1.9 per cent in November, the strongest monthly gain since March 2024. Macro sub-strategy gains were led by the HFRI Macro: Active Trading Index, which jumped +2.7 per cent, the HFRI Macro: Multi-Strategy Index, which advanced +2.35 per cent, and the HFRI Macro: Systematic Diversified Index, which added +2.3 per cent.
Fixed income-based, interest rate-sensitive strategies produced another steady gain in November, with the HFRI Relative Value (Total) Index adding an estimated +1.05 per cent for the month to notch its 13th consecutive monthly gain and 25th gain in last 28 months. RVA strategy performance was led by the HFRI RV: FI-Sovereign Index, which advanced +2.1 per cent for the month, followed closely by the HFRI RV: FI-Multi Strategy Index, which added +2.0 per cent. The HFRI RV: FI-Convertible Arbitrage Index leads all RVA sub-strategies for 2024 with a gain of +10.8 per cent.
Liquid Alternative UCITS strategies also gained in November, as the HFRX Market Directional Index advanced +1.8 per cent while the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index added +0.8 per cent. Strategy gains were led by the HFRX Macro Index, which gained +1.5 per cent, and the HFRX Equity Hedge Index, which added +1.3 per cent.
“Hedge funds surged in November in response to the US Presidential election results, with managers positioning favourably for the incoming Trump administration with expectations for a stronger economy, lower taxes, a more business-friendly regulatory environment, and a strong M&A cycle, with broad-based monthly gains led by Cryptocurrency, and directional Event Driven and Equity Hedge exposures,” says Kenneth J. Heinz, President of HFR.
“With clarity on the US election, expectations for falling geopolitical risk and incoming administration stated policy priorities to continue to lower inflation, expectations for hedge fund industry performance and asset growth in 2025 are likely to continue to increase as investors position for acceleration of the powerful risk on sentiment that dominated November. Despite enthusiasm for the continuation of this powerful trend, managers are also likely to position for unexpected volatility and dislocations as new policies impact global trade and commerce. Institutions looking to access these powerful, specialised trends while also maintaining opportunistic, defensive portfolio positioning are likely to increase exposure to funds which have demonstrated their strategy’s effectiveness and robustness over the past few years.”
